Celtic finally return to action after the last international break of the season as they travel away from Glasgow to take on Livingston in the Scottish Premiership today.
The Hoops can fire themselves back to the top of the table if they claim all three points this afternoon, after their rivals secured a win to move into first place on Saturday.
Brendan Rodgers' men have already been knocked out of the League Cup and Europe, which means that the SFA Cup and the Premiership title are their last two chances to secure silverware before the end of the 2023/24 campaign.
The former Leicester City boss may now look to make some alterations to his starting XI from the team's last match, but looks set to be without at least two of his first-team defensive options.
Maik Nawrocki is currently out with a hamstring injury, whilst Liam Scales is a doubt after missing out on international duty with Ireland due to a knock.
This means that Rodgers is limited in the options he has to pick from at the heart of the defence, with Cameron Carter-Vickers, Stephen Welsh, and Gustaf Lagerbielke the three senior heads to select from.
Welsh and Carter-Vickers started the 3-1 win over St. Johnstone before the break but the head coach should finally unleash Lagerbielke from the start alongside the USA international at the back.
Stephen Welsh's form this season
The 24-year-old academy graduate has been a bit-part player for the Scottish giants this season, and was thrust into the starting line-up after the injuries to Nawrocki and Scales.
He started in the team's last outing against the Saints and struggled with the physicality of Adama Sidibeh up front for the away side, as the central defender lost four of his seven aerial battles throughout the 90 minutes.
Minutes played
90
Aerial duels contested
7
Aerial duels won
3
Tackles
0
Interceptions
1
Pass accuracy
87%
As you can see in the table above, Welsh left a lot to be desired with his defensive work as the Scottish enforcer lost the majority of his duels in the air, and only made one tackle and interception combined.
That is not a new issue for the Hoops defender. He currently ranks 34th within the squad for tackles made per game (0.0) and 17th for interceptions per match (0.3) in the league.
Welsh has also lost a staggering 67% of his ground duels throughout the Premiership campaign so far, across eight appearances in total, which shows that opposition players have got the better of him far too easily on the deck.
With this in mind, Rodgers should finally unleash Lagerbielke from the start to partner Carter-Vickers, due to the defensive dominance he has displayed when on the pitch this season.
Why Gustaf Lagerbielke should start
Signed from Elfsborg last summer, the Sweden international has only started four Premiership matches this season, and has not started a game in 2024 so far.
When called upon in the league, however, Lagerbielke has stepped up and showcased his class for the Scottish giants, with dominant defending that has helped the team to pick up valuable points.
In his seven Premiership appearances this term, Celtic have conceded zero goals and won six games with him on the pitch. Zero goals scored by the opposition in 407 minutes of him being in action in the league is a phenomenal statistic and makes it all the more bizarre as to why he has not featured more regularly.
Appearances
7
8
Minutes played
407
404
Goals conceded whilst on the pitch
0
4
Ground duel success rate
87%
33%
Aerial duel success rate
66%
55%
Tackles + interceptions per game
1.7
0.3
Stats via Sofascore
As you can see in the table above, the Swedish colossus has outperformed Welsh in a number of key defensive metrics, both individually and as a team.
Whilst the sample size is small for both players, the statistics suggest that Lagerbielke deserves a run in the starting XI to see if he can maintain that impressive form over a sustained period.
The 6 foot 4 giant, who was hailed as an "exciting" signing by Rodgers last summer, still has plenty of time to develop and improve at the age of 23, and could go on to become a key player for many more years to come if the manager hands him a chance to nail down a place in the side.
Lagerbielke could form a strong partnership with Carter-Vickers, who he should be unleashed alongside against Livingston today, at the heart of the defence.
Cameron Carter-Vickers' season in numbers
The former Tottenham Hotspur brute has missed out on 12 matchday squads this season in the Premiership, whilst dealing with a hamstring issue, but has been a colossal figure in defence when fit for Rodgers.
Like the Swedish summer signing, Carter-Vickers is a central defender – unlike Welsh – who thrives in physical battles and has the quality and position to dominate opposition players on the deck and in the air.
The England-born titan has won 58% of his ground duels and 73% of his aerial contests across 18 appearances in the Premiership this season.
He has also made 5.4 ball recoveries and 1.4 tackles and interceptions combined per match in those 18 outings, which shows that the defender is constantly stepping in to make vital interventions to win possession back for his side.
Carter-Vickers has also remained composed and reliable on the ball. No current Celtic player has a higher pass success rate than the USA international's 91.9% in the Premiership this season.
He, therefore, rarely gives up possession to the opposition and this helps the Hoops to dominate matches and build out from the back successfully.
Lagerbielke, who has completed 85% of his attempted passes in the division, could learn from Carter-Vickers in that respect, to improve his own distribution out from the defence.
Defensively, though, they appear to be a fantastic pairing on paper as they both have the ability and physicality to dominate opposition forwards on the deck and in the air, which is why Rodgers should unleash them together today.
