Welcome back to the sixth annual … well hang on a second, what are we calling these? For the last five years I have offered my backward NFL season preview, power ranking which Week 17 games were most likely to be flexed into prime time as the 256th and final game of the regular season.
And then the NFL went and changed all the numbers on me, adding an 18th week and a 272nd game.
This time last year I wrote about how there was never a more precarious time to predict how the season would end and speculated that we didn’t even know if the NFL would play all 256 games. Now we’ll probably never see that few games again.
If you’re reading this, you probably know the deal already, but here’s a refresher: In the final week of the NFL season, all 16 games pit division opponents against each other in an effort to create more compelling matchups. The league hopes to have at least one game with major stakes that won’t depend on the outcome of another game so it can flex that one to on NBC. People call it #Game256, the Crown Jewel of the Regular SeasonTM. (Note: I am the only one who calls it that.)
This happens every year, except 2017 when the game should have been on New Year’s Eve, there were no ideal matchups and the league just kept all the games in the afternoon. Last year, we got a glimpse of exactly why the league tries to find a game that matters to both teams.
The NFL gave us a questionable-on-paper matchup between a 6–9 Washington team and the 4–10–1 Eagles. Washington knew a win would give it the least impressive division crown in recent memory. The Eagles knew a loss would improve their first-round pick from No. 9 to No. 6. It was an all-timer of a goofy NFL game that will inspire retrospectives and documentaries. The football world had a collective meltdown.
I won’t relitigate the whole matter. But the details we’ll remember are that Nate Sudfeld replaced Jalen Hurts with the outcome still in doubt, and it was the last time Carson Wentz or Doug Pederson stood on the Eagles’ sideline.
I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but I’m worried that last year’s Game 256 may be a precursor of what’s to come. Simply put: Week 18 may be a problem. By expanding both the regular season and the playoffs, the NFL is diluting the amount each game matters. I’m not worried about the sanctity of each game on the calendar, like the people who spent years arguing against a college football playoff; I’m thinking more practically about teams that clinch earlier, get eliminated earlier or have more incentives to pull lineup shenanigans in the last couple weeks of the season. As the 2020 season wound down, I compared the Jaguars to the Baltimore Orioles in my roundabout way to discuss how simple math dictates a longer season should spread teams out in the standings. Earlier this offseason I doubled down in a back and forth with Conor Orr, in which I argued that while more football sounds like a good thing, it isn’t if it makes the games on the schedule worse. I’m on a crusade to convince fantasy leagues not to tack on an extra week, though I’m finding it a failing battle.
It isn’t fun being the guy arguing for less football. (Especially as a guy who loves football!) But I just worry it won’t go how most of the football-loving world expects it to.
But anyway, that doesn’t mean a man can’t dream. I’m still capable of looking through this slate of games and finding fun ones worth parking in front of the TV for, and I’m certainly not going to break tradition over it, six years into this bit. Just know that I’ll be there to say I told you so whether I predict the best game or I predict that the whole week is a disaster. I’m holding two potential winning tickets.
So these are technically my inaugural Week 18 Sunday Night Football Flex Power Rankings, but I’m still going ahead and calling it my sixth annual column. Because, much like the Eagles get to choose which quarterback to play in the second half, I’m allowed to do what I want.
On to the rankings!
